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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd