Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
