Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
